Predictive, Source-Oriented Modeling and Measurements to Evaluate Community Exposures to Air Pollutants and Noise from Unconventional Oil and Gas Development

Lea Hildebrandt Ruiz
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HEI has published a new report Predictive, Source-Oriented Modeling and Measurements to Evaluate Community Exposures to Air Pollutants and Noise from Unconventional Oil and Gas Development led by Dr. Lea Hildebrandt Ruiz at the University of Texas at Austin. Hildebrandt Ruiz and colleagues developed the "TRAcking Community Exposures and Releases" (TRACER) model. The model can be used to predict the magnitude and frequency of emissions from individual UOGD sources, and when coupled with dispersion modeling, generates concentrations of chemicals in the air. These predictions can be used to assess the spatial and temporal variability in population exposures. The team coupled their model development with air quality monitoring in the Eagle Ford Shale region and used the monitoring data to both understand current population exposures and evaluate model predictions. To expand the geographic reach of the TRACER model, the team leveraged air quality monitoring data from a separately funded initiative to evaluate use of the TRACER model in the Marcellus region, which intersects Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. The TRACER model can help to inform policy decisions and can be used in future exposure, health, and accountability research. 

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This report, available for downloading below, presents a study led by Lea Hildebrandt Ruiz at the University of Texas at Austin. Hildebrandt Ruiz and colleagues examined population exposures to air emissions and noise in a major US oil and gas region and developed a model for use in multiple regions to predict population exposures and assess the effectiveness of interventions intended to mitigate emissions to the air.

Key takeaways:

  • The study includes extensive monitoring and modeling across three key unconventional oil and natural gas development (UOGD) regions in the United States: Eagle Ford Shale, Permian Basin, and Marcellus Shale. 
  • The investigators developed a model (the TRACER model) to assess exposures to air pollution from UOGD and inform future health studies. The model included additional sources of emissions, regional-scale modeling, a broad suite of pollutants, and evaluation for the purpose of exposure assessment in future health studies. 
  • Ethane concentrations were affected by unconventional oil and natural gas development emission sources up to 50 km away in modeling. The study reported typically high correlations between ethane and other volatile organic compounds from different exposure models and with direct observations. CALPUFF appeared to be the best-performing model in reducing bias for ethane.